BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/16
Falling imports kept Russia’s current account in surplus
Preliminary balance-of-payments figures show that Russia’s current account surplus contracted slightly on-year in January-March, but was still substantial at nearly $24 billion. The combined current account surplus of latest four quarters corresponded to more than 3 % of GDP.
Depressed by lower oil prices, the value of goods exports shrank 30 % y-o-y. The average price of Urals-grade crude was in 1Q15 only about half of what it was a year ago. The value of other goods exports also fell 13 %. The value of goods imports was down 36 % in dollar terms and 23 % in euro terms. The contraction in imports has slightly moderated after January, however, with the recovery of the ruble. The ruble’s effective (trade-weighted) exchange rate in the first quarter was down about a third from a year earlier in nominal terms and about a quarter in real terms.
The services trade balance was still in the red, even if the value of services imports in dollars fell by 24 % y-o-y in the first quarter. Import of travel services fell slightly faster than other services.
Exports and imports of Russian goods and services and current account surplus, USD billion (seasonally adjusted)
Sources: CBR, BOFIT