BOFIT Forecasts for Russia and China 2021–2023
russia
The forecast for the Russian economy has been revised upward on improved prospects for global economic growth and Russian exports. Oil prices and the expectations are also higher than in March. GDP should rise more than 3.5 % this year from last year’s low basis, before settling in 2022−2023 to slightly over 2.5 % p.a. on average. Several uncertainties surround the forecast. There could be unexpected changes in the course of the covid pandemic, global growth and oil prices. The return of international travel and the release of assets piled up by households last year can also significantly affect private consumption. Improved government revenues create opportunities for more generous budget spending.
China
Stimulus spending on the corporate sector and fixed investment, together with a strong export performance, have helped China recover rapidly from a pandemic-induced slowdown in the first half of 2020. While rapid recovery and last year’s low basis assure high on-year GDP growth figure this year, the speedy phase of economic recovery is over and lower growth lies ahead. China is struggling with a shrinking working-age population and high levels of debt that hinder deployment of capital to other uses. Moreover, there has been little progress in productivity enhancing reforms. While higher-than-expected growth is possible if consumer demand strengthens markedly, the risk of below-forecast growth has also increased during the pandemic. Growth could be severely impacted if debt becomes unsustainable, financial market disruptions generate uncertainty that spreads to the real economy or foreign relations hit an impasse.
For further information
Russia: Senior Economist Vesa Korhonen
tel. +358 9 183 3440 / vesa.korhonen(at)bof.fi
China: Senior Economist Eeva Kerola
tel. +358 9 183 2512 / eeva.kerola(at)bof.fi
Russia and China: Head of BOFIT Iikka Korhonen
tel. +358 9 183 2272 / iikka.korhonen(at)bof.fi