BOFIT Weekly Review 2016/06
Minor shifts in the structure of Russian foreign trade
Measured in US dollars, the value of both goods exports and goods imports contracted by 30 % y-o-y in the fourth quarter of 2015. The rate of contraction for both imports and exports, however, slowed slightly as the end of the year approached. Most of the drop in the value of exports reflected low commodity prices. The fall in imports came mainly from lower import volumes.
For 2015 overall, Russian goods exports contracted a bit over 30 % and had a value of about $340 billion. Crude oil, oil products and natural gas accounted for 64 % of total goods exports (a slight drop from earlier due to the sharp decline in oil prices). The volume of crude oil exports rose 9 %, oil products 4 % and natural gas 8 %. Export volumes were also up for certain metals, fertilisers and wood products. Metals accounted for nearly 10 % of exports, while chemical products and machinery & equipment each accounted for over 7 % of exports.
The value of goods imports was $190 billion, down nearly 40 % y-o-y. Again, the largest import category (45 %) was machinery, equipment and transport equipment, even if imports in this category have fallen dramatically for a while due to weak investment demand (e.g. the volume of imported passenger cars fell by half last year). As a result, pharmaceuticals became the largest single import category, and chemical products overall accounted for nearly a fifth of all imports. Foodstuffs rose slightly to nearly 15 % of imports.
EU countries saw their share of Russian foreign trade shrink slightly last year. Just under half of Russian exports went to the EU and just under 40 % of imports came from the EU. Asian countries, in contrast, saw slight increases to nearly 20 % of exports and 30 % of imports. China accounted for over 8 % of Russian exports and nearly 20 % of imports. The shares of Eurasian Economic Union countries rose slightly (due in part to the accession of Kyrgyzstan) to about 8 % for both exports and imports.