BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/07
Russian foreign trade contracted sharply in the fourth quarter
Russian customs reports the value of goods exports and imports in the fourth quarter of 2014 were down nearly 20 % y-o-y, and that in December they fell 25 % y o-y. Trade with CIS countries contracted more strongly than trade overall, due largely to the collapse of trade with Ukraine. Russian imports from Ukraine fell by half in the fourth quarter, while exports to Ukraine were down nearly 70 % y-o-y. While Russian trade was down generally, imports from Kazakhstan and Switzerland rose some 20 %.
The value of Russian exports shrank mainly on lower oil prices and reduced export volumes of crude oil and natural gas. The average price of Urals crude in October-December was down by nearly a third from 4Q2013. The volume of crude oil exports also slid nearly 7 %, while the volume of gas exports was down by nearly a third. In contrast, export volumes of petroleum products climbed 9 % y-o-y, even if they had lower value due to lower export prices. Export volumes for many metals were up, e.g. copper exports nearly doubled on year. Export volumes of coal and grain were also higher than in 2013.
The value of imports fell sharply in the fourth quarter in nearly all product categories. Imports of machinery, equipment and transport vehicles were down about 20 % y-o-y. Imports of many consumer goods fell also significantly. For example, imports of foodstuffs, textiles and passenger cars were each down over 20 % y-o-y. The slide in imports reflects e.g. the weak ruble and food import bans.
For 2014 overall, the value of Russian goods exports fell by 6 % to $500 billion. The value of goods imports was down 10 % y-o-y to $290 billion. Although slightly decreasing, the EU still accounted for nearly half of Russia’s trade. CIS countries made up about 12 % of trade, while APEC’s share rose to 27 %. Russia’s largest single trading partner is still China, which saw its share of trade rise to over 11 %. The product structure of foreign trade remained practically same as before. 70 % of Russian exports consisted of oil and gas, and the other major export items were metals and chemicals. About half of imports consisted of machinery, equipment and transport vehicles. Chemicals and foodstuffs each accounted for about 15 % of imports.