​Falling imports kept Russia’s current account in surplus

BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/16

Preliminary balance-of-payments figures show that Russia’s current account surplus contracted slightly on-year in January-March, but was still substantial at nearly $24 billion. The combined current account surplus of latest four quarters corresponded to more than 3 % of GDP.

Depressed by lower oil prices, the value of goods exports shrank 30 % y-o-y. The average price of Urals-grade crude was in 1Q15 only about half of what it was a year ago. The value of other goods exports also fell 13 %. The value of goods imports was down 36 % in dollar terms and 23 % in euro terms. The contraction in imports has slightly moderated after January, however, with the recovery of the ruble. The ruble’s effective (trade-weighted) exchange rate in the first quarter was down about a third from a year earlier in nominal terms and about a quarter in real terms.

The services trade balance was still in the red, even if the value of services imports in dollars fell by 24 % y-o-y in the first quarter. Import of travel services fell slightly faster than other services.

Exports and imports of Russian goods and services and current account surplus, USD billion (seasonally adjusted)
201516r2.png
Sources: CBR, BOFIT

Show weekly Review 2015/15 Show weekly Review 2015/17