Russia’s economic growth has continued, though slowing a bit

While the on-year September increases in most sectors of the Russian economy were notably high, the economic development ministry notes that GDP in September was only up by 0.7 % from twenty-four months previous. The third-quarter GDP gain was less than 0.5 % from two years ago.

Some key parts of the economy have grown rather briskly from the time preceding last year’s recession. The volume of retail sales during all months of this year considerably exceeded the levels of 2019. For third quarter, the volume of retail sales was markedly larger than in the small dip year ago. The seasonally adjusted volume of retail sales continued to rise, albeit rather slowly. Real disposable household incomes recovered in the third quarter, up 3 % from two years previous. Sales of services have also recovered.

The output of mineral extraction industries has revived. In September, it was down by just a half percent from two years previous, mainly due to the gradual increase in crude oil output towards levels preceding the OPEC+ agreement whose production ceilings continue rising. In recent months, manufacturing output, which had already exited its slump a year ago, is now substantially higher than it was two years ago. The volume of seasonally-adjusted manufacturing output, however, shows weak growth since early summer.

Output in most sectors of the Russian economy has grown from levels that preceded last year’s recession

Sources: Rosstat and BOFIT.