Russian GDP back to pre-covid levels

Preliminary figures from Rosstat show that Russia’s gross domestic product rose by 10.3 % y-o-y in the second quarter. Russia struggled with the deepest part of the economic decline in the second quarter of 2020 induced by the first wave of the covid pandemic, so the on-year growth figure in the second quarter of 2021 was abnormally high. The pace of growth was slightly higher than the economic development ministry’s GDP estimate suggested. Compared to the second quarter of 2019, the GDP in the second quarter of 2021 was 1.7 % larger. Preliminary figures suggest that the second quarter saw particularly brisk growth in many services branches and the construction sector.

While Rosstat has yet to release seasonally adjusted national accounts for the second quarter, it appears that Russian GDP was about 1 % larger than in the fourth quarter of 2019. Recovery from the economic impacts of the pandemic has been faster than generally anticipated last winter. The Russian economy benefited from rising domestic demand, the faster-than-expected recovery of the global economy and higher crude oil prices (BOFIT Weekly 31/2021).

Russian on-year GDP growth scored high in the second quarter due to the low basis of last year caused by covid’s first wave

Sources: Rosstat and BOFIT.