Recovery in Russian output stalls

The Russian economy performed poorly in October. After already contracting for a couple of previous months, workday- and seasonally-adjusted industrial output fell again a tiny bit last month. Output was lower than in the spring and summer, and unchanged from a year earlier. The contraction in output of extractive industries (including oil & gas) halted with October and September output on par with a year earlier. Crude oil production in September-October was smaller than a year earlier, and the boom in natural gas production earlier this year has subsided. Seasonally-adjusted manufacturing output has remained largely flat in recent months, and in October output was unchanged from a year earlier. Manufacturing output was pressed down by the metal industries and oil refining.

Following good growth in August and September, October agricultural output was down from a year earlier. The continued slight slide in construction last month brought a substantial on-year drop. In contrast, the volume of goods transport still in October was considerably higher than a year earlier.

The recovery in retail sales continued in October. As in September, the volume of retail sales was up 3 % y-o-y. The high fixed investment growth of the second quarter faded to a couple of per cent in the third quarter.

Russian retail sales and industrial output, 2014–17

Sources: Rosstat.