New data show distinctly milder recession in Russia than earlier reported

Revised Rosstat GDP figures for 2015 show GDP contracted just 3 %, rather than 3.7 % as reported earlier. The new figures for key demand components indicate that a smaller drop in private consumption from 9.5 % to slightly below 9 % was largely responsible for reducing the GDP contraction. Private consumption accounts for about half of Russian GDP. The GDP number also improved as there was a change in the statistical discrepancy figure that is contained within the demand components. On the supply side, the largest components mitigating the fall in GDP were trade and the construction sectors, as well as public administration.

The upwardly revised 2015 GDP figure did so far not impact Rosstat figures for the first half of 2016. The first data for the third quarter of the year confirm that domestic demand in Russia was no longer very much smaller than in 3Q2015 (private consumption was down about 3 % and fixed investments down about 0.5 %). After a weak first half, Rosstat reports that the volume of Russian exports of goods and services in the third quarter was up by nearly 7 % y-o-y. Goods and services imports declined by no more than 3 %.