Russian industrial output increased, consumption still falling

November seasonally and workday-adjusted industrial output increased substantially from October. Revised Rosstat figures show that industrial output rose by over 1 % in the course of October and November, and 2.7 % y-o-y for November.

Seasonally adjusted output of extractive industries was unchanged in November compared to the previous month, but was notably higher than in the weak November 2015. Crude oil production, which is part of extractive industries, reached record-high levels again in early autumn. For the October-November period, production continued to rise further, and was up over 3 % y-o-y. Natural gas production also showed unusually strong gains in November.

Manufacturing output in November increased at its fastest rate in a long while, and the growth reached 2.5 % y-o-y. As earlier this year, manufacturing output in recent months was led by the same well-performing branches, i.e. chemicals, rubber & plastics. In contrast, production of metals and construction materials remained sluggish even in recent months.

The decline in the volume of seasonally adjusted retail sales continued in November, with the volume remaining 4 % smaller than a year earlier. Real household disposable incomes also fell further.

Three primary production sectors appear to have been largely untouched by Russia’s year-and-a-half recession. Mineral extraction only saw a slight drop in output for a couple of spring months in 2015, and has been resurgent this year. Electrical power production also increased this year. Agricultural production was up both in 2015 and this year. This view was affirmed by the latest GDP production component figures, which show on-year growth in the first three quarters and in the third quarter came mainly from agriculture, mineral extraction and electrical power generation and distribution.