BOFIT Weekly Review 2016/45
Russian economy projected to see gradual recovery next year
Key forecasts see a GDP contraction of 0.5‒1 % this year. Russia’s economy ministry and the Central Bank of Russia see GDP growing by more than 0.5 % next year, cautiously assuming the average price of Urals-grade crude remains at $40 a barrel. Other forecasts (IMF, World Bank, EU Commission, EBRD and Consensus forecast) assume a moderate increase in oil prices. Nearly all forecasts see GDP rising 1‒1.5 % next year.
Private consumption is expected to increase in 2017 by about 0.5−1 %, i.e. a slow recovery from the current deep recess. The uncertain investment outlook is reflected in forecast estimates of fixed investment growth that vary from virtually no growth to nearly 2 %.