Russia posts weak economic figures for May

Several short-term economic indicators suggest growth has not yet returned to Russia. While May industrial output was up 0.7 % y-o-y overall and manufacturing 0.3 %, both showed seasonally adjusted contractions from April. Growth of extractive industries continued to slow in May, falling to 1.5 % y-o-y. Construction activity declined more sharply in May than in previous months and was down 9 % y-o-y.

The contraction in retail sales accelerated in May, with the volume of retail sales down 6 % y-o-y. Retail sales declined also in seasonally adjusted terms from April. Retail trade development largely reflects a contraction in real incomes. The average nominal Russian monthly wage in May was 36,600 rubles (€490), an increase of 6 % y-o-y. With inflation outpacing wage growth, real wages fell about 1 % and real disposable income (including pensions and various income transfers) was down nearly 6 %. May unemployment was 5.6 %, the same as the May 2015 figure.

Trends in retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing

Sources: Macrobond, Rosstat, BOFIT.