Russian export earnings and import spending continue to fall

BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2016/15

Preliminary balance-of-payments figures from the Central Bank of Russia show export earnings from goods and services fell by a third in the first quarter from 1Q15 (and they were not very much larger than at the bottom of 1Q09). The on-year drops in earnings on exports of crude oil, oil products and natural gas exceeded 40 %. Earnings on other goods exports slumped more than 20 %. In both energy and non-energy categories, export earnings were depressed mainly by low commodity prices. Service export earnings also contracted further (down nearly 20 % y-o-y).

Russian export earnings and import spending (EUR), % change y-o-y
201615r2.png
Source: CBR.

First-quarter spending on imported goods and services was down nearly 20 % y-o-y, scoring the same amount as in 1Q10. Spending on goods imports was no longer down more than about 15 % y-o-y, while spending on services imports was off almost 30 % due to a pullback in spending of Russian travellers abroad (down well over 40 %).

Due to the huge drop in export earnings, the goods trade surplus was the smallest it has been since the 2009 slump. That, in turn, reduced the current account surplus to an unusually low level (less than $12 billion) despite smaller deficits in services trade and other current account items.

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