BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/50
Cheap oil and shifting exchange rates jostle China’s foreign trade numbers
China’s goods exports in November amounted to $197 billion, a 7 % y-o-y decrease. Goods imports fell 9 % to $143 billion. In the first eleven months of this year the value of Chinese exports fell 3 % and the value of imports 15 %. The trade surplus for January-November 2015 amounted to $543 billion, an increase of 64 % y-o-y.
The value of China’s exports to the US in the first eleven months of this year increased 4 % y-o-y, while exports to Japan fell by 8 % and exports to EU countries contracted by 5 %. At the time, the yuan strengthened against the euro and yen. If China’s exports to EU countries are measured in euros, they were up 14 % y-o-y in January-November. Measured in yen, exports to Japan were up 6 % y-o-y.
The drop in commodity prices was the main factor dragging down the value of imports. The value of China’s oil imports in January-November was over 40 % less than in the same period last year. In volume terms, China this year has imported over 300 million tons of oil, or about 9 % more than the first eleven months of 2014. Imports of iron ore in the same period were up 2 % by volume, even if the dollar value of iron ore imports this year was down 38 % y-o-y. In January-November, the volume of imported pulp increased 12 % y-o-y. In contrast, coal imports have fallen significantly (down 24 % by volume and down 41 % by value).
Changes in selected commodity import volumes and values, %
Source: Macrobond