BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/50
Russian energy export volumes at crossroads
In volume terms, the export performance of Russia’s oil sector this year has exceeded expectations. Early this year, Russia’s economic forecast predicted the volume of crude oil exports would rise by about 1.5 % this year and exports of oil products would drop 1 %. In reality, exports of crude oil increased remarkably in the first half, and even more for oil products. Growth in the volume of crude oil exports also remained strong after mid-summer. For January-October, oil exports were up nearly 8 % y-o-y. Exports are still clearly below the levels of 2004–2011, however. The volume of oil product exports have contracted substantially since mid-summer, while the volume exported in January-October was still up nearly 5 % from the same period in 2014. In its September forecast, the economy ministry predicted that export volumes of crude oil and oil products would decline 1–2 % next year.
The volume of natural gas exports fell in the second half of 2014 by 30 % y-o-y as exports to non-CIS countries fell and exports to Ukraine nearly vanished. Gas exports remained rather low through the spring, but since have recovered on increased demand from non-CIS countries. Ukraine, which has sought to wean itself from dependence on Russian gas, has purchased only a very small amount of Russian gas this year. Russia’s September economic forecast sees the volume of natural gas exports rising in coming years, but still not coming near the high levels of previous years, e.g. 2003–2008.
Volumes of Russian oil & gas exports
Sources: Russian customs and CBR