Russia’s consolidated budget deficit fairly small so far this year

BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/47

The consolidated budget (which combines federal, regional and municipal budgets, plus state social funds) showed a January-September deficit of about 1.5 % of GDP. Government revenues have not suffered quite as much as Russian officials earlier estimated for the whole year. Revenues have been less weak than expected for oil and gas (even if these revenues were down nearly 20 % y-o-y), as well as other revenues to the federal budget and regional budgets. Total government revenues increased by about 1.5 % in nominal ruble terms.

The deficit has remained rather small despite high outlays early in the year which have made spending less back-weighted than in previous years. Russia’s traditional end-of-year spending spree should be more subdued this year, but could still significantly increase the deficit. The finance ministry this summer forecasted that the 2015 consolidated budget deficit would be around 5.5 % of GDP. The Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation has since given a slightly more modest deficit projection of 4.5 % of GDP.

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