BOFIT Weekly Review 33/2015
CBR releases elaborated assessment of foreign debt servicing payments through end of this year
The Central Bank of Russia estimates the actual amount for foreign debt of banks and non-bank corporations coming due in the final four months of this year is $35 billion rather than its statistically recorded $61 billion. The CBR’s specified estimate aims at excluding “intra-group operations” which the CBR views as having a high likelihood of becoming refinanced. The estimate is based on earlier debt-servicing trends and a survey of Russia’s 30 largest companies.
As a result, the CBR does not expect excessive forex demand in the final months of this year to pay off foreign debt. It noted bank and non-bank firms currently hold about $135 billion in liquid foreign assets. Russia can also pay down foreign debt out of its current account surplus. The CBR now projects a current account surplus of $20–28 billion for 2015, if the oil price stays in the range of $40–60 a barrel. The CBR also said it has $14 billion in untapped funds it can make available as forex repo credits.
With foreign debt-servicing payments set to peak in September and falling oil prices depressing the ruble, forex markets have become quite skittish in recent weeks.