Major institutions lower their outlooks for Russia and Ukraine.

BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/04

The World Bank, IMF and EBRD have all released revised outlooks for Russia. Noting low crude oil prices, economic sanctions and structural problems of the Russian economy, they all project Russian GDP will shrink this year. The World Bank and IMF expect the GDP to contract 3 %, while the EBRD is predicting a fall of nearly 5 %. The World Bank assumes a crude oil price this year of $66/bbl, while the IMF and EBRD expect $57–58/bbl.

For 2016, the World Bank sees a slight return to growth for the Russian economy, while the IMF expects a further 1 % contraction.

Ukraine’s GDP is projected to continue its fall, albeit at a rate slower than in 2014 (which has been estimated at about -8 %). The World Bank now expects Ukraine’s GDP to contract just over 2 % this year, while the EBRD sees shrinkage of about 5 %.

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